Trump’s War With China Has Only Just Started - 21st Sep
The Chinese know something has to give – big time – in their position on trade and investment rules. Secondly, the problem the Chinese have is they have no idea what the administration’s fundamental position is. So the levels of complexity from a Chinese negotiating perspective are massive. In my judgement we have a long way to go yet and I think the Chinese view is that this will get a lot worse before it gets better. But what people underestimate the significance of in Washington, is that the Chinese have politics too; it’s not just a western political reality. The whole notion of backing down – or being seen to back down within Chinese politics to US pressure – is almost as politically unsaleable in Beijing as it is in the Trump heartland. So the bottom line: China wants this dispute resolved as quickly as possible but it is a misreading to assume the Chinese are politically desperate to resolve it.
I don’t see any off-ramp. There is going to have to be a lot of pain before anybody backs away. The trade hawks around Trump seem to think that China’s economy is now so wobbly that sanctions will push the country over the edge, and the Chinese will coming begging for mercy. They seem to have no idea what it would mean for the global financial system if they did succeed in taking down China.
Are China and the US doomed to conflict? - 23rd Aug
To avoid the war that research has found frequently occurs between an established nation and a rapidly rising power, a common basis must be discovered. A constructive realism for a common purpose must be formulated. Striking out collaboratively against climate change is also helpful. Truly working towards a jointly acceptable set of solutions should be the goal of both China and the US. Furthermore, taking a leap of faith to try to attain a dream for all of humankind, not just the Chinese Dream or American Dream is a challenge for all of us.