Who Can Take More Pain In This Trade War Showdown? - 14th Sep

I don’t see any off-ramp. There is going to have to be a lot of pain before anybody backs away. The trade hawks around Trump seem to think that China’s economy is now so wobbly that sanctions will push the country over the edge, and the Chinese will coming begging for mercy. They seem to have no idea what it would mean for the global financial system if they did succeed in taking down China.

Trump’s Pro-Business Stance Could Disrupt the Current Cycle - 28th Jun

The flattening- and by some global measures, inverting- bond yield curve suggests that the market thinks that momentum could be fragile. Inflation is a potential concern, which is one thing tariffs could help fuel. It’s something that, in the worst case scenario, could bring this cycle to an early end.

Patrick Chovanec: What American Corporations Really Think About China - 8th Dec

What Jack Ma says is correct – within limits. He’s correct that you go to a country and have to play by their rules and government regulations. You have a choice as a business to gauge whether the opportunity is really worth it. Some will decide that it is and others will stay away.

Patrick Chovanec: China Clampdown Signals ‘New Era’ for $15 Trillion in Funds - 24th Nov

The private wealth products are now thoroughly embedded in the heart of China’s financial system and play a key role in rolling over non-performing debt. Investors believe they will be paid regardless of whether the investment performs or not. If investors can lose their money, they will stop funding these sorts of assets. Is China willing to accept what that means?

Patrick Chovanec: November 2017 U.S. Economic and Market Review - 21st Nov

House Republicans have finally introduced their long-awaited tax bill, kicking the legislative process into high gear. Several of the bill’s provisions – cutting the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%, allowing immediate write-offs of capital investments – could boost after-tax corporate earnings in future years. But the complex package faced mixed reviews, even from generally supportive business groups.

Patrick Chovanec featured in: China Answers Trump’s Call for Trade Investigation - 18th Aug

In the past, China was unwilling to negotiate about intellectual property theft. However, Trump will need to decide, after the investigation ends, if he wants to seek trade restrictions. Sanctions have caused China to react with similar measures in the past.

Patrick Chovanec: Trade fight between China and US remains rhetorical, not action-based - 4th Aug

Key question: is this really about moving the needle on these economic issues, or are they just bargaining chips to move the needle when it comes to North Korea?

Patrick Chovanec: Is the Fed Under Pressure to Raise Rates? - 17th Aug

  Source: August 10th, 2016, CNBC

Patrick Chovanec: Economic Review & Investment Strategy – 2016/I - 17th Aug

2020 FORESIGHT Rather than getting obsessed with the daily ups and downs of the market, we have always advised taking a step back, and adopting a 3-5 year time horizon for making investment decisions. So it is fair to ask, … Continued

Patrick Chovanec: U.S. Economic & Market Review—AUGUST 2016 - 17th Aug

The buoyant gains across global equity markets in July, amid decidedly mixed economic news, have given investors good reason to wonder how long the upswing will last. Volatile market sentiment makes another sharp but short-lived downdraft—like the market has experienced … Continued

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