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How To Avoid World War III in Asia - 6th Jul
World War II still hasn’t ended, yet World War III already looms. The recent discovery of large oil and gas reserves under the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands islands has heated up the situation dramatically, with military budgets surging, and warships, coast guards and fighter jets scrambling to assert control over the commons. Meanwhile, tensions on the Korean Peninsula have drastically escalated into the world’s most dangerous flashpoint over the past seven decades precisely because the Korean War itself was never formally ended in 1953. A multipolar world can be an unstable landscape of security dilemmas and proxy competitions à la Europe before World War I, or it can be a stable balance of power in which sufficient distance among poles and respect for their spheres of influence generates a dynamic equilibrium. If we want this kind of lasting global stability, we must permit technocrats to make the peace first.
Supply chain complexity – rendered manageable with the help of technology – will become the new differentiator. There are more incentives and more drivers pushing for the expansion of global trade and supply chains in the years ahead and fewer arguments for containing or shrinking them.
The more than one decade long “supercycle” in which voracious Asian consumption fueled peak commodities prices and enabled Latin America and Africa to notch sustained high growth rates is attributable to Chinese and Indian demand, not America’s open markets.
It’s a big deal that China is using infrastructure as a peaceful way of extending its influence around its periphery. We should expect to see increased port developments in Eurasia territories, which will translate to greater trade efficiency.
Regionalism and reciprocity become the most important barriers to escalation of tensions. Globalization’s advance is the only antidote to the logic of superpower-centric rivalries – replacing war with tug-of-war.
Leadership today is about who provides the infrastructure financing, technical assistance, construction equipment and other essential underpinnings of the modernization most of the world still needs to achieve.
Parag Khanna: The End of the World - 8th Aug
Listen to Parag Khanna’s podcast discussing the new global order, Asia and connectography.
In terms of connectivity, which I consider to be one of the major trends in further growth and future sustainability of these cities, Moscow should probably move to considering itself as the largest agglomeration between Western Europe, Far East and Asia, acting as a mediator and a connecting link for these regions.
We will have to come to grips with the reality that digital tools are essential to successful real-time governance, and that elections themselves are just one data-point in the broader stream of information that can help governments craft better policy. Indeed, the success of societies on the whole may well be determined far more by which adopts to the latest technologies than by which most resembles 18th century American democracy.
“You have software providers, you have airports, you have rail, and all the things you need for the global economy. He has mapped all this out. So the city state is being lifted up as the building block of the future,” Wood said. “He openly calls for the deconstruction of national governments. In other words, he’s saying that we need to minimize the power of nations and take all the functions that the national governments have and give that power to the cities, because that’s where everything is happening anyway.”