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The concern about Chinese economic policy and practices is serious and real but the question is how you deal with it. Unilateral trade enforcement mechanisms are not going to do it. You need systemic tools that shape the economic environment around China in order to reshape their incentives.
Evan Medeiros: Seoul, concerned about Pyongyang’s provocation during Olympics, asks US to delay upcoming drills - 18th Dec
On the one hand, you want to work with your South Korean ally but on the other hand, this dangerously validates North Korea’s claim that the exercises are a source of tension. The next step could be to shrink the exercises or cancel them all together.
Even in thinking that there is not a growing risk of Sino-U.S. conflict, the U.S. needs to keep an eye on the Taiwan Strait. The U.S. should be vigilant even if some scholars are claiming that Chinese President Xi Jinping will wait until 2049, the centenary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, to address the Taiwan issue.
Xi Jinping wants a team around him that will implement his vision. On economic issues, one could tentatively say that this Politburo Standing Committee is more reform-minded than the current lineup.
On one hand, China doesn’t want collapse, chaos and war on the Korean Peninsula. But on the other, it doesn’t want Kim Jong Un to continue to create instability and chaos through its nuclear and missile programs.
Evan Medeiros featured in: Think what you want about Steve Bannon, but he’s got a good point on China - 22nd Aug
I think Trump is making a strategic miscalculation. You need to tell the Chinese that both of these issues are important and both need to be addressed on their own.
My view is that Xi Jinping will choose two successors, and that he at a minimum is not going to signal at the party congress this fall that he’s going to stay for a third term, because doing so would generate so many antibodies within the system.
The meetings had all the signs (no joint statement, no press conference, no outcomes) of serious and sustained tensions rapidly emerging due to deep differences. US and China have produced no details for the one-year plan that Mr Trump and Mr Xi agreed would follow after the first 100 days.
This is just more evidence that the US-Russia relationship is going to be characterized by manage confrontation. Despite what Trump may aspire to have in terms of a personal relationship with Putin, the differences on Syria, Ukraine – but the never-ending distraction of Russia-gate in the United States is going to be a huge domestic political constraint on Trump’s ability to improve the relationship.
Evan Medeiros featured in: The US is not interested in making any deals with North Korea right now. Here’s why - 13th Jul
Over the next 6-12 months, the focus of U.S. policy is going to be pressure, sanctions and isolation via economic, diplomatic and military means. Washington will encourage, coerce and bribe as much cooperation from South Korea, Japan, China, ASEAN, and the EU as possible.