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Trump’s War With China Has Only Just Started - 21st Sep
The Chinese know something has to give – big time – in their position on trade and investment rules. Secondly, the problem the Chinese have is they have no idea what the administration’s fundamental position is. So the levels of complexity from a Chinese negotiating perspective are massive. In my judgement we have a long way to go yet and I think the Chinese view is that this will get a lot worse before it gets better. But what people underestimate the significance of in Washington, is that the Chinese have politics too; it’s not just a western political reality. The whole notion of backing down – or being seen to back down within Chinese politics to US pressure – is almost as politically unsaleable in Beijing as it is in the Trump heartland. So the bottom line: China wants this dispute resolved as quickly as possible but it is a misreading to assume the Chinese are politically desperate to resolve it.
Are China and the US doomed to conflict? - 23rd Aug
To avoid the war that research has found frequently occurs between an established nation and a rapidly rising power, a common basis must be discovered. A constructive realism for a common purpose must be formulated. Striking out collaboratively against climate change is also helpful. Truly working towards a jointly acceptable set of solutions should be the goal of both China and the US. Furthermore, taking a leap of faith to try to attain a dream for all of humankind, not just the Chinese Dream or American Dream is a challenge for all of us.
Xi Jinping’s Vision for Global Governance - 12th Jul
What is startlingly new about Xi’s remarks at the Central Conference was his call for China now to “lead the reform of the global governance system with the concepts of fairness and justice.” This is by far the most direct statement of China’s intentions on this important question offered so far. The world should buckle up and get ready for a new wave of Chinese international policy activism.
The future of the global order is in a state of flux. China has a clear script for the future. It’s time for the rest of the international community to develop one of its own.
Trade wars, like the current one between the US and China are easy to stop but hard to stop. Going from trade to politics is quick. Bad internal politics could result when trying to deescalate the situation. On the US-China trade imbalance and IP issues, only time will determine whether just solutions present themselves. Regarding IP, a broad approach focusing on historical US-China relations going back hundreds of years, is the Chinese mindset.
From South Korea’s perspective, the #TrumpKimSummit is creating a chain of events that is leading the narrative in the right direction. Unless and until we run into a roadblock, a general commitment to denuclearization is an excellent first step.
The challenge we face today is different from what we faced yesterday. In the New Era, no country can solve these challenges alone, so new coordination and cooperation are needed. We should help each other.
SAGE exclusive speaker and former Prime Minister of Australia Kevin Rudd sat down with Jon Faine to discuss his new autobiography “Not for the Faint-hearted: A personal reflection on life, politics and purpose”.
Kevin Rudd: Economic integration won’t shield Asia from war, but a truly pan-Asian security grouping might - 13th Sep
An expanding East Asia Summit will not exist as a substitute for evolving and existing alliance structures. But it could help take the sharper edges off what is now unfolding, as well as slowly evolving concepts of common security, military transparency and common military exercises. These could, over time, help preserve the “long peace” from which we have collectively benefited since the end of the last Korean war.
The bottom line is the plight of the Rohingya, and of the 50 million other people in Myanmar, will likely not improve if we care more about censoring and abandoning the only democratic government the country has had in half a century. The way to peace, justice, and human rights will come through democratic rule of law, and not a return to military rule.
The Chinese ultimately believe the US is going to have to live with North Korea as a nuclear weapons state. China’s object in the meantime is to convince the US and the wider international community that it is doing whatever it can to prevent that. The Chinese military also believes that a North Korean nuclear capability is a nine-out-of-10 problem for America, and a one-out-of-10 problem for China.