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Trade wars, like the current one between the US and China are easy to stop but hard to stop. Going from trade to politics is quick. Bad internal politics could result when trying to deescalate the situation. On the US-China trade imbalance and IP issues, only time will determine whether just solutions present themselves. Regarding IP, a broad approach focusing on historical US-China relations going back hundreds of years, is the Chinese mindset.
How To Avoid World War III in Asia - 6th Jul
World War II still hasn’t ended, yet World War III already looms. The recent discovery of large oil and gas reserves under the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands islands has heated up the situation dramatically, with military budgets surging, and warships, coast guards and fighter jets scrambling to assert control over the commons. Meanwhile, tensions on the Korean Peninsula have drastically escalated into the world’s most dangerous flashpoint over the past seven decades precisely because the Korean War itself was never formally ended in 1953. A multipolar world can be an unstable landscape of security dilemmas and proxy competitions à la Europe before World War I, or it can be a stable balance of power in which sufficient distance among poles and respect for their spheres of influence generates a dynamic equilibrium. If we want this kind of lasting global stability, we must permit technocrats to make the peace first.
The flattening- and by some global measures, inverting- bond yield curve suggests that the market thinks that momentum could be fragile. Inflation is a potential concern, which is one thing tariffs could help fuel. It’s something that, in the worst case scenario, could bring this cycle to an early end.
Electric vehicles have been held back by battery and charging techniques. Now a single supercapacitor technology might be able to solve both in one hit! This new material brings the new supercapacitors closer to the storage capacity of lithium-ion batteries, but with the added benefits of immediate recharging and cheaper production costs.
From South Korea’s perspective, the #TrumpKimSummit is creating a chain of events that is leading the narrative in the right direction. Unless and until we run into a roadblock, a general commitment to denuclearization is an excellent first step.
The lifting of American sanctions could create a mini economic boom for North Korea. China would invest massively. It has always wanted a market economy, largely out of self interest. Its border regions with North Korea are struggling and it would be looking to tap into any North Korean boom for its own benefit.
Our military presence in Asia protects the interests of our allies. Any change in the confidence of our closest supporters could have unprecedented ramifications. The #TrumpKimSummit could undermine American history.
The Chinese . . . worry that there is a lot that Trump could do to change the status quo in North Korea which wouldn’t really be in their interests. I think they fear Trump could broker something, and they fear that North Korea really wants a good relationship with the US.
By mirroring Japan’s tactics towards the US, China can deal with the often unpredictable tactics of President Trump. Japan’s four decade long trade negotiations starting in the 1950’s may serve as a guide.
The tragic, unfortunate death of icon Kate Spade highlights a need for an increased focus on mental health in our lives. We all need to be more mindful of our mental and spiritual well-being to avoid future tragedies.