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Even in thinking that there is not a growing risk of Sino-U.S. conflict, the U.S. needs to keep an eye on the Taiwan Strait. The U.S. should be vigilant even if some scholars are claiming that Chinese President Xi Jinping will wait until 2049, the centenary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, to address the Taiwan issue.
John Pomfret: John Pomfret’s “The Beautiful Country and the Middle Kingdom” Wins 2017 CFR Arthur Ross Book Award - 17th Nov
The course of the twenty-first century will depend on how the United States and China manage their complicated relationship – and there is no better guide to the history of that relationship and scene-setter for the future than John Pomfret’s wonderful new book.
China may be mistaken in thinking it had done enough to address U.S. concerns, and Trump could find people disappointed at home he didn’t make more progress on items like market access and North Korea.
Those who favor different rates for income tax and capital gains tend to argue that people wouldn’t invest if investment income were taxed at normal rates, and that it would stop job creation. There is absolutely no evidence for this.
North Korea is going to keep having these provocations, but we lose by engaging with them, by playing with them on their own level. That’s one of the big problems with what Trump is doing – the way North Korea speaks is not a good rubric for international diplomacy.
These trade and economic issues by themselves are extremely important for the future health of the US-China relationship. If we can’t fix these, the relationship over the long term will potentially derail.
Richard McGregor: Asia’s Reckoning: China, Japan and the Fate of US Power in the Pacific Century by Richard McGregor review: ‘Unatural intimacies’ - 13th Nov
A compelling account of the post-war relationship between China, Japan and America, brings to life one of the globe’s defining relationships – the strains, the nuances, the competing strategic and emotional strands of trilateral ties.
For Xi, it is important that China and the United States are perceived as equals during the visit. For their part, the Americans will try to avoid the visit being seen as a ‘G2 summit’ or a meeting of ‘the two most powerful leaders in the world’.
One of the risks I think on this particular trip is that you’ll see the warm atmosphere, you’ll see the large number of business deals, but the more fundamental structural and urgent issues, if they’re not addressed in some way during this trip, I worry frankly that you’re going to begin to see in the US a hardening of US policy towards China.
Duncan Clark: An inside look at how China’s internet giant Alibaba has taken on the world - 10th Nov
China is an unpredictable, bumpy ride. What big internet firms such as Alibaba offer investors is the promise that their management teams can negotiate the conditions, serve as a shock absorber. It’s not going to be smooth, there are risks, but the excitement around what these guys represent, gatekeepers to this massive market – 300-plus-million people today, 500 million middle class in the future.